Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains

We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.